Suspicious Timing
Major political announcements move markets. These are congressional trades that happened in the 10 days before those announcements, in the exact stocks and sectors that were affected. Trades made after are excluded - that's just public information. What's left is the suspicious part.
How this works
For each major political event, we search our database of 41,860 congressional trade disclosures for any trades in affected tickers in the 10 days before the event. We only show trades made before the announcement - trades made after are irrelevant since the information was already public. A trade before an event could mean foresight, routine portfolio activity, or pure coincidence. We flag the timing - you decide what it means.
Polymarket ceasefire bets - $70K across 8 accounts
Bets totaling $70,000 made by eight Polymarket users on a U.S.-Iran ceasefire before it was announced, suggesting potential insider trading on prediction markets.
Polymarket surge: 150+ accounts bet on Iran strike
An unusual surge of more than 150 Polymarket accounts placed hundreds of bets predicting a U.S. strike on Iran by the next day, before it was publicly announced.
| Timing | Politician | Tickers | Action | # Trades | Est. Value | Owner(s) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
10d before
Mar 11, 2026
|
David Taylor Rep | CVX | Sell | 1 | $8K | Not disclosed |
|
9d before
Mar 12, 2026
|
David Taylor Rep | CVX | Sell | 1 | $8K | Not disclosed |
|
8d before
Mar 13, 2026
|
Michael McCaul Rep | CVX | Sell | 1 | $750K | Spouse |
A note on what this page shows
This page maps publicly disclosed congressional trades against documented political events. A trade near an event is not proof of wrongdoing - members of Congress trade frequently, and coincidences happen. What matters is the pattern: when the same sectors and tickers keep appearing in the days before market-moving announcements, the question shifts from "is this suspicious?" to "how often does this happen?"
The larger suspicious trading incidents (the $580M pre-dawn oil futures bet, the $950M ceasefire trade) involve anonymous market participants - not necessarily Congress members. We include those events for context because they show the environment in which congressional trading happens.