Congress vs. the Market

Every disclosed stock trade, scored against the S&P 500 over the exact same days. If a member bought a stock, did it outrun simply buying SPY that morning? If they sold, did the stock lag afterwards? This is timing, not luck of the bull market.

Trades made All years 2023 2024 2025 2026
Measured after 30 days 90 days 6 months
Congress's stock buys since 2023, 90 days later
−1.0 pts
behind the S&P 500 over the same days
+3.4%Congress buys
+4.4%S&P 500, same days
44%of buys beat it
16,231buys scored

Democrats vs. Republicans vs. the S&P 500

Dollar-weighted return of every disclosed stock purchase since 2023, 90 days after the trade

Democrats
+5.1% 9,999 buys
S&P 500, same days
+5.1% +0.0 pts edge
Republicans
+1.7% 6,208 buys
S&P 500, same days
+3.8% −2.0 pts edge
Return
0+2%+4%+6%+8%

Democrats timed the market better since 2023: their buys ran +0.0 pts versus the S&P over the same days, compared with −2.0 pts for the other side.

Who Beat the Market?

Points each member's buys beat (or trailed) the S&P 500 over the same 90 days. Current members with 10+ scored buys since 2023. Dollar-weighted.

Best timing
+17.3 pts 10 buys
+8.7 pts 47 buys
+6.7 pts 17 buys
+5.8 pts 11 buys
+5.8 pts 117 buys
+5.3 pts 25 buys
+4.6 pts 14 buys
+3.4 pts 216 buys
+3.4 pts 16 buys
+3.3 pts 17 buys
+3.0 pts 40 buys
+3.0 pts 28 buys
+2.9 pts 173 buys
+2.9 pts 10 buys
+2.7 pts 42 buys
vs S&P 500
−40 pts−20 pts0+20 pts+40 pts
Worst timing
−4.8 pts 63 buys
−5.7 pts 55 buys
−7.5 pts 156 buys
−7.8 pts 10 buys
−7.9 pts 13 buys
−9.3 pts 26 buys
−9.7 pts 22 buys
−11.0 pts 10 buys
−14.2 pts 11 buys
−22.3 pts 12 buys
vs S&P 500
−40 pts−20 pts0+20 pts+40 pts

34 of 67 active traders beat the S&P 500 with their buys since 2023.

Full table — all 67 members
#Politician BuysVolume ReturnS&P same days vs S&PHit rate
1 Kelly Morrison Dem 10 $154K +28.7% +11.5% +17.3 pts 90%
2 John Fetterman Dem 47 $376K +16.7% +8.0% +8.7 pts 64%
3 Bob Latta Rep 17 $210K +11.7% +5.0% +6.7 pts 53%
4 Dwight Evans Dem 11 $88K +15.6% +9.8% +5.8 pts 82%
5 Kevin Hern Rep 117 $11.1M +17.6% +11.8% +5.8 pts 50%
6 Neal Dunn Rep 25 $225K +10.3% +5.0% +5.3 pts 76%
7 Jerry Moran Rep 14 $137K +10.8% +6.1% +4.6 pts 79%
8 Cleo Fields Dem 216 $21.5M +10.2% +6.7% +3.4 pts 54%
9 John Curtis Rep 16 $662K +5.4% +2.0% +3.4 pts 38%
10 Pete Sessions Rep 17 $151K +6.2% +2.9% +3.3 pts 59%
11 Michael Guest Rep 40 $345K +4.1% +1.1% +3.0 pts 53%
12 Nancy Pelosi Dem 28 $32.7M +6.0% +3.0% +3.0 pts 39%
13 Tim Moore Rep 173 $7.8M +6.9% +4.0% +2.9 pts 55%
14 Victoria Spartz Rep 10 $288K +5.9% +3.0% +2.9 pts 80%
15 Rich McCormick Rep 42 $336K +7.5% +4.9% +2.7 pts 57%
16 Angus King Ind 24 $192K +8.3% +5.7% +2.6 pts 46%
17 Tony Wied Rep 31 $2.2M +6.2% +3.9% +2.2 pts 52%
18 Mitch McConnell Rep 13 $104K +7.1% +5.1% +2.0 pts 54%
19 Byron Donalds Rep 106 $848K +6.4% +4.4% +2.0 pts 39%
20 Lisa McClain Rep 683 $6.5M +7.6% +5.7% +1.9 pts 40%
21 David Taylor Rep 114 $961K +6.1% +4.3% +1.8 pts 45%
22 Maria Elvira Salazar Rep 58 $1.2M +10.6% +8.9% +1.7 pts 40%
23 Jared Moskowitz Dem 279 $2.4M +7.3% +5.8% +1.5 pts 48%
24 Bill Keating Dem 47 $768K +2.0% +0.5% +1.5 pts 55%
25 Bruce Westerman Rep 105 $963K +4.8% +3.7% +1.2 pts 48%
26 Virginia Foxx Rep 106 $946K +6.6% +5.7% +0.9 pts 50%
27 Katie Britt Rep 16 $128K +14.7% +14.1% +0.5 pts 44%
28 Michael McCaul Rep 1,344 $104.2M +6.7% +6.2% +0.5 pts 46%
29 Greg Stanton Dem 94 $801K +12.5% +12.1% +0.3 pts 48%
30 Dave McCormick Rep 40 $5.4M +0.8% +0.4% +0.3 pts 70%
31 Julie Johnson Dem 111 $888K +0.3% +0.0% +0.2 pts 46%
32 Tim Walberg Rep 13 $349K −5.5% −5.7% +0.2 pts 38%
33 Gil Cisneros Dem 803 $8.3M +5.1% +5.0% +0.1 pts 47%
34 Rob Bresnahan Rep 268 $3.1M +9.5% +9.4% +0.1 pts 46%
35 Rick Larsen Dem 25 $200K +1.4% +1.6% −0.2 pts 48%
36 Jefferson Shreve Rep 191 $68.4M −3.2% −2.9% −0.3 pts 40%
37 John James Rep 124 $1.0M +11.8% +12.1% −0.3 pts 45%
38 Josh Gottheimer Dem 527 $93.1M +3.7% +4.2% −0.5 pts 42%
39 Ro Khanna Dem 6,743 $90.7M +5.5% +6.2% −0.7 pts 44%
40 John Boozman Rep 253 $2.6M +4.5% +5.3% −0.8 pts 36%
41 Rick Allen Rep 19 $556K +3.1% +4.2% −1.0 pts 53%
42 Jonathan Jackson Dem 98 $2.6M +4.6% +5.9% −1.3 pts 48%
43 Greg Landsman Dem 40 $492K +3.7% +5.2% −1.5 pts 50%
44 Thomas Kean Jr Rep 73 $707K +3.3% +4.9% −1.5 pts 42%
45 Julia Letlow Rep 144 $1.2M +2.6% +4.5% −1.9 pts 40%
46 Shelley Moore Capito Rep 35 $354K +4.6% +6.5% −1.9 pts 43%
47 Alan Armstrong Rep 620 $7.3M +14.6% +16.8% −2.2 pts 33%
48 Val Hoyle Dem 190 $1.6M +1.9% +4.1% −2.3 pts 44%
49 Lloyd Doggett Dem 70 $560K +2.3% +4.9% −2.6 pts 36%
50 Chuck Fleischmann Rep 82 $877K +1.6% +5.1% −3.4 pts 28%
51 Ashley Moody Rep 15 $1.6M −4.9% −1.4% −3.4 pts 47%
52 Ritchie Torres Dem 62 $496K +1.3% +4.9% −3.6 pts 35%
53 Michael Rulli Rep 13 $104K −0.5% +3.1% −3.6 pts 31%
54 Lois Frankel Dem 38 $304K −2.1% +1.7% −3.8 pts 32%
55 Scott Franklin Rep 98 $2.3M +5.0% +9.0% −4.1 pts 30%
56 James Comer Rep 29 $232K −8.3% −3.9% −4.3 pts 28%
57 Tommy Tuberville Rep 226 $6.9M +1.2% +5.8% −4.6 pts 37%
58 Daniel S. Goldman Dem 63 $1.6M +2.9% +7.7% −4.8 pts 40%
59 Dan Newhouse Rep 55 $538K +2.9% +8.5% −5.7 pts 31%
60 April McClain Delaney Dem 156 $1.6M −0.7% +6.7% −7.5 pts 26%
61 French Hill Rep 10 $489K +2.8% +10.6% −7.8 pts 10%
62 Carol Miller Rep 13 $192K +1.3% +9.2% −7.9 pts 15%
63 Mark Warner Dem 26 $208K +4.0% +13.3% −9.3 pts 23%
64 Sheldon Whitehouse Dem 22 $274K −3.2% +6.5% −9.7 pts 32%
65 Brandon Gill Rep 10 $196K −3.5% +7.5% −11.0 pts 30%
66 John McGuire Rep 11 $88K −7.1% +7.1% −14.2 pts 18%
67 John Hickenlooper Dem 12 $2.4M −14.1% +8.3% −22.3 pts 17%

Every Stock They Bought

The 25 biggest buyers since 2023. Each grey dot is one stock's return 90 days after purchase; the diamond is the member's dollar-weighted result; the amber tick is what the S&P 500 did over the same days.

one stock member (weighted) S&P 500, same days

Best-Timed Buys

Individual purchases of $15K+ that most outran the S&P 500 since 2023

PoliticianStockDateAmount Stock 90 daysS&PEdge
Cleo Fields Dem IREN Jul 10, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 +252.9% +7.9% +245.0 pts
Alan Armstrong Rep MU Mar 27, 2026 $15,001 - $50,000 +239.9% +16.1% +223.8 pts
Lisa McClain Rep RGTI Jul 17, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 +228.7% +6.2% +222.5 pts
Alan Armstrong Rep AMD Mar 27, 2026 $15,001 - $50,000 +163.7% +16.1% +147.6 pts
Maria Elvira Salazar Rep MRVL Apr 6, 2026 $15,001 - $50,000 +127.7% +14.3% +113.4 pts
Gil Cisneros Dem AMD Apr 14, 2026 $15,001 - $50,000 +109.5% +8.2% +101.4 pts
Tim Moore Rep INTC Aug 1, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 +108.0% +9.7% +98.3 pts
Ro Khanna Dem PANW Mar 30, 2026 $15,001 - $50,000 +115.1% +17.6% +97.6 pts
Tim Moore Rep INTC Jul 29, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 +93.7% +8.2% +85.6 pts
Lisa McClain Rep PLTR Aug 14, 2024 $15,001 - $50,000 +93.1% +10.1% +83.0 pts

Sold Right Before the Drop

Sales of $15K+ where the stock most lagged the S&P 500 afterwards (the seller avoided the loss)

PoliticianStockDateAmount Stock after sale 90 daysS&PEdge
Jefferson Shreve Rep CNC May 12, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 −59.8% +9.4% +69.2 pts
Michael McCaul Rep FISV Aug 4, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 −52.2% +8.6% +60.7 pts
Michael McCaul Rep SEDG Jul 31, 2023 $15,001 - $50,000 −68.9% −8.9% +60.0 pts
Michael McCaul Rep SEDG Jul 31, 2023 $50,001 - $100,000 −68.9% −8.9% +60.0 pts
Michael McCaul Rep FISV Aug 7, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 −51.8% +7.5% +59.2 pts
Michael McCaul Rep FISV Aug 6, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 −51.9% +7.0% +58.9 pts
Michael McCaul Rep FISV Aug 15, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 −52.8% +4.7% +57.5 pts
Michael McCaul Rep SEDG Aug 8, 2023 $50,001 - $100,000 −59.8% −2.6% +57.2 pts
Michael McCaul Rep SEDG Aug 8, 2023 $50,001 - $100,000 −59.8% −2.6% +57.2 pts
Jefferson Shreve Rep PCVX Mar 5, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 −53.1% +2.5% +55.7 pts

Worst-Timed Buys

Not every trade is a winner. Purchases of $15K+ that trailed the S&P 500 the most since 2023

PoliticianStockDateAmount Stock 90 daysS&PEdge
Alan Armstrong Rep MHVIY Mar 30, 2026 $15,001 - $50,000 −58.6% +17.6% −76.2 pts
Rob Bresnahan Rep UNH Apr 8, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 −44.7% +25.4% −70.1 pts
Cleo Fields Dem FIG Aug 1, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 −60.0% +9.7% −69.6 pts
Tim Moore Rep GNPX Oct 29, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 −64.5% +1.5% −65.9 pts
Jefferson Shreve Rep UNH Apr 7, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 −41.7% +23.4% −65.1 pts
Ro Khanna Dem UNH Apr 15, 2025 $15,001 - $50,000 −48.1% +16.6% −64.7 pts
Gil Cisneros Dem AGX Jun 30, 2026 $15,001 - $50,000 −54.9% +2.9% −57.8 pts
Ro Khanna Dem INTU Mar 30, 2026 $15,001 - $50,000 −37.7% +17.6% −55.3 pts
Ro Khanna Dem ACN Mar 30, 2026 $15,001 - $50,000 −36.3% +17.6% −53.9 pts
Ro Khanna Dem ACN Mar 23, 2026 $15,001 - $50,000 −37.1% +13.9% −50.9 pts

Where the Money Went — and How It Did

Congress's buys by sector since 2023: points ahead of or behind the S&P 500 over the same days. Bars sorted by dollars invested.

Information Technology
+1.5 pts $180.4M
Financials
+1.2 pts $153.1M
Industrials
+1.3 pts $32.9M
Health Care
−2.9 pts $32.2M
Consumer Discretionary
−1.0 pts $27.3M
Energy
−24.9 pts $26.0M
Communication Services
−4.6 pts $20.8M
Consumer Staples
−4.9 pts $14.8M
Materials
−3.3 pts $9.3M
Real Estate
−3.5 pts $6.7M
Utilities
−4.0 pts $5.4M
vs S&P 500
−30 pts−20 pts−10 pts0+10 pts+20 pts

How We Score This

Same-day benchmark. For each disclosed trade we take the stock's closing price on the trade date and 90 days later (split- and dividend-adjusted, via Yahoo Finance), and do the same for SPY. The gap between the two is the trade's edge. Trades whose window hasn't finished yet are left out, so recent trades never count on partial data.

Buys and sells. A buy scores well if the stock beat the S&P afterwards. A sale scores well if the stock lagged it — they got out before underperformance.

Dollar-weighted. Disclosures only give ranges ($1,001–$15,000, etc.), so each trade is weighted by the midpoint of its range. Hit rate is unweighted: the share of individual buys that beat the market.

What this isn't. These are not portfolio returns. Members don't disclose full holdings in these filings, only trades, and some reports cover positions opened years earlier. Stocks that were delisted, merged away, or have no public price (private funds, bonds, crypto) can't be scored — and because failed companies tend to be delisted, that leaves a mild upward bias in the raw returns. Beating the market is not evidence of wrongdoing — it's a question worth asking.