Congress vs. the Market
Every disclosed stock trade, scored against the S&P 500 over the exact same days. If a member bought a stock, did it outrun simply buying SPY that morning? If they sold, did the stock lag afterwards? This is timing, not luck of the bull market.
Democrats vs. Republicans vs. the S&P 500
Dollar-weighted return of every disclosed stock purchase since 2023, 90 days after the trade
Democrats timed the market better since 2023: their buys ran +0.0 pts versus the S&P over the same days, compared with −2.0 pts for the other side.
Who Beat the Market?
Points each member's buys beat (or trailed) the S&P 500 over the same 90 days. Current members with 10+ scored buys since 2023. Dollar-weighted.
34 of 67 active traders beat the S&P 500 with their buys since 2023.
Full table — all 67 members
| # | Politician | Buys | Volume | Return | S&P same days | vs S&P | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelly Morrison Dem | 10 | $154K | +28.7% | +11.5% | +17.3 pts | 90% |
| 2 | John Fetterman Dem | 47 | $376K | +16.7% | +8.0% | +8.7 pts | 64% |
| 3 | Bob Latta Rep | 17 | $210K | +11.7% | +5.0% | +6.7 pts | 53% |
| 4 | Dwight Evans Dem | 11 | $88K | +15.6% | +9.8% | +5.8 pts | 82% |
| 5 | Kevin Hern Rep | 117 | $11.1M | +17.6% | +11.8% | +5.8 pts | 50% |
| 6 | Neal Dunn Rep | 25 | $225K | +10.3% | +5.0% | +5.3 pts | 76% |
| 7 | Jerry Moran Rep | 14 | $137K | +10.8% | +6.1% | +4.6 pts | 79% |
| 8 | Cleo Fields Dem | 216 | $21.5M | +10.2% | +6.7% | +3.4 pts | 54% |
| 9 | John Curtis Rep | 16 | $662K | +5.4% | +2.0% | +3.4 pts | 38% |
| 10 | Pete Sessions Rep | 17 | $151K | +6.2% | +2.9% | +3.3 pts | 59% |
| 11 | Michael Guest Rep | 40 | $345K | +4.1% | +1.1% | +3.0 pts | 53% |
| 12 | Nancy Pelosi Dem | 28 | $32.7M | +6.0% | +3.0% | +3.0 pts | 39% |
| 13 | Tim Moore Rep | 173 | $7.8M | +6.9% | +4.0% | +2.9 pts | 55% |
| 14 | Victoria Spartz Rep | 10 | $288K | +5.9% | +3.0% | +2.9 pts | 80% |
| 15 | Rich McCormick Rep | 42 | $336K | +7.5% | +4.9% | +2.7 pts | 57% |
| 16 | Angus King Ind | 24 | $192K | +8.3% | +5.7% | +2.6 pts | 46% |
| 17 | Tony Wied Rep | 31 | $2.2M | +6.2% | +3.9% | +2.2 pts | 52% |
| 18 | Mitch McConnell Rep | 13 | $104K | +7.1% | +5.1% | +2.0 pts | 54% |
| 19 | Byron Donalds Rep | 106 | $848K | +6.4% | +4.4% | +2.0 pts | 39% |
| 20 | Lisa McClain Rep | 683 | $6.5M | +7.6% | +5.7% | +1.9 pts | 40% |
| 21 | David Taylor Rep | 114 | $961K | +6.1% | +4.3% | +1.8 pts | 45% |
| 22 | Maria Elvira Salazar Rep | 58 | $1.2M | +10.6% | +8.9% | +1.7 pts | 40% |
| 23 | Jared Moskowitz Dem | 279 | $2.4M | +7.3% | +5.8% | +1.5 pts | 48% |
| 24 | Bill Keating Dem | 47 | $768K | +2.0% | +0.5% | +1.5 pts | 55% |
| 25 | Bruce Westerman Rep | 105 | $963K | +4.8% | +3.7% | +1.2 pts | 48% |
| 26 | Virginia Foxx Rep | 106 | $946K | +6.6% | +5.7% | +0.9 pts | 50% |
| 27 | Katie Britt Rep | 16 | $128K | +14.7% | +14.1% | +0.5 pts | 44% |
| 28 | Michael McCaul Rep | 1,344 | $104.2M | +6.7% | +6.2% | +0.5 pts | 46% |
| 29 | Greg Stanton Dem | 94 | $801K | +12.5% | +12.1% | +0.3 pts | 48% |
| 30 | Dave McCormick Rep | 40 | $5.4M | +0.8% | +0.4% | +0.3 pts | 70% |
| 31 | Julie Johnson Dem | 111 | $888K | +0.3% | +0.0% | +0.2 pts | 46% |
| 32 | Tim Walberg Rep | 13 | $349K | −5.5% | −5.7% | +0.2 pts | 38% |
| 33 | Gil Cisneros Dem | 803 | $8.3M | +5.1% | +5.0% | +0.1 pts | 47% |
| 34 | Rob Bresnahan Rep | 268 | $3.1M | +9.5% | +9.4% | +0.1 pts | 46% |
| 35 | Rick Larsen Dem | 25 | $200K | +1.4% | +1.6% | −0.2 pts | 48% |
| 36 | Jefferson Shreve Rep | 191 | $68.4M | −3.2% | −2.9% | −0.3 pts | 40% |
| 37 | John James Rep | 124 | $1.0M | +11.8% | +12.1% | −0.3 pts | 45% |
| 38 | Josh Gottheimer Dem | 527 | $93.1M | +3.7% | +4.2% | −0.5 pts | 42% |
| 39 | Ro Khanna Dem | 6,743 | $90.7M | +5.5% | +6.2% | −0.7 pts | 44% |
| 40 | John Boozman Rep | 253 | $2.6M | +4.5% | +5.3% | −0.8 pts | 36% |
| 41 | Rick Allen Rep | 19 | $556K | +3.1% | +4.2% | −1.0 pts | 53% |
| 42 | Jonathan Jackson Dem | 98 | $2.6M | +4.6% | +5.9% | −1.3 pts | 48% |
| 43 | Greg Landsman Dem | 40 | $492K | +3.7% | +5.2% | −1.5 pts | 50% |
| 44 | Thomas Kean Jr Rep | 73 | $707K | +3.3% | +4.9% | −1.5 pts | 42% |
| 45 | Julia Letlow Rep | 144 | $1.2M | +2.6% | +4.5% | −1.9 pts | 40% |
| 46 | Shelley Moore Capito Rep | 35 | $354K | +4.6% | +6.5% | −1.9 pts | 43% |
| 47 | Alan Armstrong Rep | 620 | $7.3M | +14.6% | +16.8% | −2.2 pts | 33% |
| 48 | Val Hoyle Dem | 190 | $1.6M | +1.9% | +4.1% | −2.3 pts | 44% |
| 49 | Lloyd Doggett Dem | 70 | $560K | +2.3% | +4.9% | −2.6 pts | 36% |
| 50 | Chuck Fleischmann Rep | 82 | $877K | +1.6% | +5.1% | −3.4 pts | 28% |
| 51 | Ashley Moody Rep | 15 | $1.6M | −4.9% | −1.4% | −3.4 pts | 47% |
| 52 | Ritchie Torres Dem | 62 | $496K | +1.3% | +4.9% | −3.6 pts | 35% |
| 53 | Michael Rulli Rep | 13 | $104K | −0.5% | +3.1% | −3.6 pts | 31% |
| 54 | Lois Frankel Dem | 38 | $304K | −2.1% | +1.7% | −3.8 pts | 32% |
| 55 | Scott Franklin Rep | 98 | $2.3M | +5.0% | +9.0% | −4.1 pts | 30% |
| 56 | James Comer Rep | 29 | $232K | −8.3% | −3.9% | −4.3 pts | 28% |
| 57 | Tommy Tuberville Rep | 226 | $6.9M | +1.2% | +5.8% | −4.6 pts | 37% |
| 58 | Daniel S. Goldman Dem | 63 | $1.6M | +2.9% | +7.7% | −4.8 pts | 40% |
| 59 | Dan Newhouse Rep | 55 | $538K | +2.9% | +8.5% | −5.7 pts | 31% |
| 60 | April McClain Delaney Dem | 156 | $1.6M | −0.7% | +6.7% | −7.5 pts | 26% |
| 61 | French Hill Rep | 10 | $489K | +2.8% | +10.6% | −7.8 pts | 10% |
| 62 | Carol Miller Rep | 13 | $192K | +1.3% | +9.2% | −7.9 pts | 15% |
| 63 | Mark Warner Dem | 26 | $208K | +4.0% | +13.3% | −9.3 pts | 23% |
| 64 | Sheldon Whitehouse Dem | 22 | $274K | −3.2% | +6.5% | −9.7 pts | 32% |
| 65 | Brandon Gill Rep | 10 | $196K | −3.5% | +7.5% | −11.0 pts | 30% |
| 66 | John McGuire Rep | 11 | $88K | −7.1% | +7.1% | −14.2 pts | 18% |
| 67 | John Hickenlooper Dem | 12 | $2.4M | −14.1% | +8.3% | −22.3 pts | 17% |
Every Stock They Bought
The 25 biggest buyers since 2023. Each grey dot is one stock's return 90 days after purchase; the diamond is the member's dollar-weighted result; the amber tick is what the S&P 500 did over the same days.
Best-Timed Buys
Individual purchases of $15K+ that most outran the S&P 500 since 2023
| Politician | Stock | Date | Amount | Stock 90 days | S&P | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleo Fields Dem | IREN | Jul 10, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | +252.9% | +7.9% | +245.0 pts | |
| Alan Armstrong Rep | MU | Mar 27, 2026 | $15,001 - $50,000 | +239.9% | +16.1% | +223.8 pts | |
| Lisa McClain Rep | RGTI | Jul 17, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | +228.7% | +6.2% | +222.5 pts | |
| Alan Armstrong Rep | AMD | Mar 27, 2026 | $15,001 - $50,000 | +163.7% | +16.1% | +147.6 pts | |
| Maria Elvira Salazar Rep | MRVL | Apr 6, 2026 | $15,001 - $50,000 | +127.7% | +14.3% | +113.4 pts | |
| Gil Cisneros Dem | AMD | Apr 14, 2026 | $15,001 - $50,000 | +109.5% | +8.2% | +101.4 pts | |
| Tim Moore Rep | INTC | Aug 1, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | +108.0% | +9.7% | +98.3 pts | |
| Ro Khanna Dem | PANW | Mar 30, 2026 | $15,001 - $50,000 | +115.1% | +17.6% | +97.6 pts | |
| Tim Moore Rep | INTC | Jul 29, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | +93.7% | +8.2% | +85.6 pts | |
| Lisa McClain Rep | PLTR | Aug 14, 2024 | $15,001 - $50,000 | +93.1% | +10.1% | +83.0 pts |
Sold Right Before the Drop
Sales of $15K+ where the stock most lagged the S&P 500 afterwards (the seller avoided the loss)
| Politician | Stock | Date | Amount | Stock after sale 90 days | S&P | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferson Shreve Rep | CNC | May 12, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −59.8% | +9.4% | +69.2 pts | |
| Michael McCaul Rep | FISV | Aug 4, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −52.2% | +8.6% | +60.7 pts | |
| Michael McCaul Rep | SEDG | Jul 31, 2023 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −68.9% | −8.9% | +60.0 pts | |
| Michael McCaul Rep | SEDG | Jul 31, 2023 | $50,001 - $100,000 | −68.9% | −8.9% | +60.0 pts | |
| Michael McCaul Rep | FISV | Aug 7, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −51.8% | +7.5% | +59.2 pts | |
| Michael McCaul Rep | FISV | Aug 6, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −51.9% | +7.0% | +58.9 pts | |
| Michael McCaul Rep | FISV | Aug 15, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −52.8% | +4.7% | +57.5 pts | |
| Michael McCaul Rep | SEDG | Aug 8, 2023 | $50,001 - $100,000 | −59.8% | −2.6% | +57.2 pts | |
| Michael McCaul Rep | SEDG | Aug 8, 2023 | $50,001 - $100,000 | −59.8% | −2.6% | +57.2 pts | |
| Jefferson Shreve Rep | PCVX | Mar 5, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −53.1% | +2.5% | +55.7 pts |
Worst-Timed Buys
Not every trade is a winner. Purchases of $15K+ that trailed the S&P 500 the most since 2023
| Politician | Stock | Date | Amount | Stock 90 days | S&P | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Armstrong Rep | MHVIY | Mar 30, 2026 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −58.6% | +17.6% | −76.2 pts | |
| Rob Bresnahan Rep | UNH | Apr 8, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −44.7% | +25.4% | −70.1 pts | |
| Cleo Fields Dem | FIG | Aug 1, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −60.0% | +9.7% | −69.6 pts | |
| Tim Moore Rep | GNPX | Oct 29, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −64.5% | +1.5% | −65.9 pts | |
| Jefferson Shreve Rep | UNH | Apr 7, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −41.7% | +23.4% | −65.1 pts | |
| Ro Khanna Dem | UNH | Apr 15, 2025 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −48.1% | +16.6% | −64.7 pts | |
| Gil Cisneros Dem | AGX | Jun 30, 2026 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −54.9% | +2.9% | −57.8 pts | |
| Ro Khanna Dem | INTU | Mar 30, 2026 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −37.7% | +17.6% | −55.3 pts | |
| Ro Khanna Dem | ACN | Mar 30, 2026 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −36.3% | +17.6% | −53.9 pts | |
| Ro Khanna Dem | ACN | Mar 23, 2026 | $15,001 - $50,000 | −37.1% | +13.9% | −50.9 pts |
Where the Money Went — and How It Did
Congress's buys by sector since 2023: points ahead of or behind the S&P 500 over the same days. Bars sorted by dollars invested.
How We Score This
Same-day benchmark. For each disclosed trade we take the stock's closing price on the trade date and 90 days later (split- and dividend-adjusted, via Yahoo Finance), and do the same for SPY. The gap between the two is the trade's edge. Trades whose window hasn't finished yet are left out, so recent trades never count on partial data.
Buys and sells. A buy scores well if the stock beat the S&P afterwards. A sale scores well if the stock lagged it — they got out before underperformance.
Dollar-weighted. Disclosures only give ranges ($1,001–$15,000, etc.), so each trade is weighted by the midpoint of its range. Hit rate is unweighted: the share of individual buys that beat the market.
What this isn't. These are not portfolio returns. Members don't disclose full holdings in these filings, only trades, and some reports cover positions opened years earlier. Stocks that were delisted, merged away, or have no public price (private funds, bonds, crypto) can't be scored — and because failed companies tend to be delisted, that leaves a mild upward bias in the raw returns. Beating the market is not evidence of wrongdoing — it's a question worth asking.